FIRE calculator
How many years until you can stop working? Three views: savings-rate hook, AU-aware accumulation projection, and historical 30-year withdrawal success rate.
paycalculator · /fire
When can you stop working?
One input. Years to financial independence — based on your savings rate.
Based on a 5% real return and 4% safe withdrawal rate.
Starting portfolio $1,282,686 · withdrawing $48,000/year (real). Based on 96 years of US large-cap real total returns (1928–2023).
Frequently asked questions
What is FIRE?
FIRE — Financial Independence, Retire Early — is the point at which your invested portfolio can sustainably cover your annual expenses. The standard heuristic is the 4% safe withdrawal rate: when your portfolio is roughly 25× your annual spending, you can retire.
How does the savings-rate slider work?
Years to FI is a closed-form function of one input — your savings rate — once you assume a real return and a withdrawal rate. At a 50% savings rate, 5% real return and 4% withdrawal rate, you reach FI in roughly 17 years. Higher savings rate means fewer years.
Are the projections in today's dollars?
Yes. The accumulation chart and the historical-cycle simulation both use real (inflation-adjusted) returns, so every figure is in today's purchasing power. There's no need to inflate your expense number.
Where does the historical dataset come from?
96 years of US large-cap real (inflation-adjusted) total returns from 1928 to 2023. The same window academic studies use to benchmark long-horizon withdrawal strategies.
How is Australian super handled?
The accumulation projection treats Super Guarantee contributions as a separate compounding bucket. SG flows in at the current FY rate (12% from 1 July 2025) on top of your gross income. It's combined with outside-super savings when checking whether the 4% rule covers your expenses.
Is this financial advice?
No. paycalculator/fire is a generic estimation tool. It does not account for your individual circumstances, taxes on withdrawals, sequence-of-returns risk strategies, or unforeseen expenses. Talk to a licensed Australian financial adviser before making decisions.
Estimates only. Real returns assumed constant in projection; historical cycles use 96 years of US large-cap real total returns (1928–2023). Not financial advice.